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Global Crises
On a quarterly basis, Jewish World Watch provides an update on the status of the worst man-made crises in the world. These updates are prepared by, among others, Victor Gold, Esq., Professor of Law, Loyola Law School, Member, Temple Emanuel, Jewish World Watch Committee and Member, JWW Synagogue Advisory Committee.
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JWW World Crisis Update
June 23 2009
The purpose of this report is provide a quarterly update for Jewish World Watch of the most serious human rights crises in the world at this time, with a specific focus on situations which exhibit high risk of genocide. These descriptions are taken primarily from Enough, Human Rights Watch, the New York Times, Reuters and The Economist. This report does not describe the situation in Sudan/Darfur/Chad since other JWW reports deal with that crisis. This report makes no attempt to rank the following crises in order of seriousness. Instead, they are listed in alphabetical order. Maps included in this report were taken from Wikipedia.
Afghanistan
Much of Afghanistan’s history is fraught with continuous civil war, instability, bloody coups, and foreign interventions (Russia, US). Today, Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world and while many were hopeful for improved quality of life following the toppling of the Taliban regime in 2001, life remains brutal for many Afghan civilians amidst poverty, poor infrastructure, lack of security, and large concentrations of land mines and other remnants of war. Efforts to stabilize and rebuild the country are countered with ongoing struggle and violence. Recent reports indicate an increasing Taliban presence in Afghanistan, and the issue of civilian casualties caused by international forces has led to surmounting tension between Afghans and Coalition Forces. Since the early 1980s, several millions of Afghan have fled the country and resettled in neighboring Pakistan and Iran. By the end of 2001, approximately 5 million Afghan refugees resided in Pakistan. Since 2002, however, efforts by the UNHCR have been made to repatriate this enormous refugee population. Recently, President-Elect Obama has been in discussion with military leaders in support of a “surge” of troops, similar to that credited with bringing added security to Iraq, in Afghanistan. Remnants of the Taliban fighting to oust thousands of foreign troops and Afghanistan's new Western-backed government have launched a campaign of bomb attacks, ambushes and raids, and a recent report by the International Council on Security and Development claimed that the Taliban are strong in 72% of the country. NATO and the Afghan government have rejected the report. On March 10, 2009, VP Joe Biden reported that the west is not winning in Afghanistan. Preisdent Obama approved the deployment of 17,000 more troops in January. These troops will help curtail the shortage of police trainers. They are being shifted from training the Afghan army to the police, but critics say this is a short term solution.
In May, Army Lieutenant General Stanley McChrystal became the new U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan. He will have to deal will fallout from controversial air strikes aimed at militants, but also killing civilians. The 2nd week of June, there were 400 insurgent attacks. In 2004, there were 50 per week. Also, in May UNICEF reported that 2 million state school students don’t have access to safe drinking water and 75% of Afghan schools do not have Safe Sanitation facilities. Afghan officials disagree with that number.Fewer than 1/3 of Afghans are supporting Karzai’s re-election.
Burma
Low intensity armed conflict between the Burmese government and the various ethnic groups has predominated in the region from early independence until the present. Recent Burmese army attacks on ethnic minority villages have displaced hundreds of thousands and created poor living conditions and numerable human rights and international law violations. The counter-insurgency campaign against the Karen National Union (KNU) from Karen State, ongoing since 2006, is the largest Burmese military operation in numerous years. As a result, tens of thousands of Karen civilians have fled their homes and livelihoods. The U.S. Committee for Refugees says people have been beheaded and villages torched, and calls the Karen people "one of the most ignored groups in one of the most difficult humanitarian emergencies". One ensuing crisis needing immediate attention is the issue of civilian refugees being forced back into the conflict zone. Burmese refugees seeking asylum in Thailand face abuse by Thai security forces and forced return despite high risk of persecution in their homeland. In 2007, a protest against rising fuel prices turned into a full-blown democracy movement. Street marches led by Buddhist monks presented the biggest challenge to the junta's supremacy in nearly two decades. An unknown number of protesters were killed and thousands arrested in an army crackdown. In May 2008, a massive cyclone smashed into the country, killing tens of thousands and leaving an estimated 2.4 million destitute. Aid workers say that restrictions imposed by the junta, including limits on travel, hinder their ability to help. Just days after the cyclone hit, Myanmar held a referendum on a new constitution that is a key step in the junta's "roadmap to democracy" meant to culminate in multi-party elections in 2010. Western governments dismiss the constitution and the roadmap as a blueprint for the army to legitimise its grip on power. The constitution voted on gives the army 25 percent of seats in parliament, control of key ministries and the right to suspend the constitution at will. The junta said more than 92 percent of the ballots cast were in favor of the charter.UNHCR chair Antonio Guterres is visiting Rakhine state, home to over 200k Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic group not recognized by the govt. Crisis watch lists Burma as unchanged in their list of conflict reviews.
The myriad of ethnic groups are refusing to dearm themselves in the lead up the the new constitution next year. This could lead to another civil war. In May, The ruling Junta closed the trial of Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy leader after an international outrage over the trial. Doctors without Frontiers estimates that 240,000 people are infected with HIV in Burma. They had to stop taking new patients last July, due to budget constraints. The UN has asked for government permits to bring antiretroviral drugs into the country. Fewer than 20% who need drugs receive them.
Central African Republic
Despite an abundance of diamonds and timber, landlocked Central African Republic is one of the poorest states in Africa. The government has little control outside the capital. It is constantly battling rebels, after a decade of instability and a history of frequent coups and mutinies. The north suffers the worst violence, which has driven almost 300,000 people from their homes since 2006, including almost 100,000 who have fled across the border into Chad and Cameroon. The country's politics are intimately linked with its neighbours, especially Chad and Sudan, raising fears of an escalating regional conflict. Rebel groups and mercenaries raid villages for food and livestock, sometimes raping and killing. Villagers also live in fear of "zaraguinas,” marauding criminal gangs who kidnap children for ransom and thrive on the lawlessness accompanying the political conflict. The U.N. in May reported that an additional 100,000 civilians had been displaced by bandit attacks, which had soared since start of year. In recent months, steps have been taken to stabilize CAR. The former Congolese rebel warlord, Jean-Pierre Bemba, was arrested in May on an International Criminal Court warrant, accused of leading Congolese rebels who waged a campaign of rape and torture in CAR in 2002-2003. In June, moreover, the government of CAR signed a ceasefire accord with APRD, the last major rebel group to join the national peace process.
Some armed groups think the government has failed to follow through on commitments of the cease fire. More than 100,000 people still live in refugee bush settlements.
Chad
Chad has experienced decades of civil war since its independence. The current government, ruled by Idriss Deby since he seized power in 1990, is considered highly corrupt. Eastern Chad has become a region of particular concern, as conflict has spilled over from Darfur and new rebel groups – believed to be supported by Sudan – have emerged since 2005. In particular, rebel attacks against Deby’s government in February and May 2008 threatened to destabilize the regime, and have rapidly escalated tensions and threats of inter-regional conflict between Chad and Sudan. Deby’s counterinsurgency campaigns against these rebels have killed tens of thousands of innocent civilians, and displaced hundreds of thousands more just since 2007. In addition to continued government corruption and ethnic hostilities, Chad is further destabilized by the Darfur crisis which has resulted in around 280,000 refugees in Chad and 180,000 displaced persons near the Eastern border where violent conflicts are prevalent and ethnic tensions are high. By March 2008, the European Union peacekeeping mission for Eastern Chad (EUFOR), meant to protect civilians and refugees there, was still only partially deployed. EUFOR clashed with Sudanese troops after inadvertently crossing over border. Though in this same month Chad and Sudan signed another peace accord in Senegal, in May tensions with Sudan boiled over once more as Khartoum accused Deby’s government of supporting a May 10-11 Darfuri rebel attack on the Sudanese capital. The Chadian government denied involvement and purportedly closed its border with Sudan, while Sudan responded by cutting all ties with Chad. In June, in a move some analysts have marked as retaliation for the May attacks on Khartoum, Chadian rebels advanced into Chad from Sudan and raided several towns in the east. This raid did not near the capital. Chad is bracing for an influx of refugees from Darfur following Sudan’s expulsion of 13 aid agencies.There are already over 500,000 refugees straining the already scarce natural resources in eastern Chad.
There has been increased violence with Sudan. The two governments are accusing each other of starting the fights. There was a new offensive by UFR rebels to take the capital city of Chad. 100 refugees from CAR come to Chad every day
Democratic Republic of Congo
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is an ethnically diverse country located in Central Africa. During the past decade, tremendous regime instability marked by sporadic fighting between various warlords has translated into mass displacement and the death of 5.4 million people since 1998. A large percentage of the deaths were disease-related due to the collapse of health services and infrastructure in the war-torn country. At one period the conflict became known as “Africa’s World War” due to the spill-over of conflict into seven other African countries. Although Congo’s war formally ended in 2002, ongoing poverty and violence continue to take a dramatic toll on the Congolese. Furthermore, the issue of torture and ill-treatment of political prisoners remains a large human rights violation in the region. The DRC has been labeled one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Though the civil war in Congo officially ended in 2003, and a renewed peace agreement was signed in January 2008, in recent months violence has resurged, as rebel leader Laurent Nkunda’s militias marched on major towns in the east. In his wake, over 250,000 civilians have been newly displaced. Despite reports of the success of a joint Rwandan-Congolese offensive against the FDLR, civilians and NGOs are reporting that the FDLR is likely merely scattered and preparing to regroup. Retaliation attacks on civilians are feared. Many civilians have, however, registered for repatriation after a decade of living in refugee camps and forests. 4000 refugees have been repatriated since January. Last year, 8000 were repatriated the whole year. There are approximately 1.4 million internally displaced people in the east. In the northeast, the Ugandan rebel group Lords Resistance Army have been attacking the civilian population.
While there is still violence, Crisis Watch lists DRC’s situation as unchanged. There is a desperate need for a partnership between the international community and the government of the DRC.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia, a country afflicted by harsh climate, border wars, and internal conflicts, continues its struggle to cope. From 1998 to 2000, a bloody war took place between Ethiopia and Eritrea, killing thousands and displacing over 700,000 people from the border areas. Despite its own stark conditions and lack of security, Ethiopia has become home to very large numbers of Eritrean, Sudanese, and Somali refugees. Both Ethiopia and Eritrea have been accused of human rights violations, including use of child soldiers. Despite an Organization for African Unity brokered peace plan in 1999, peace in the Ethiopian-Eritrean region has been very difficult to come by. Drought, violent clashes, and poor government spending continues to threaten the survival of many Ethiopians. The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), moreover, has been fighting a long-running insurgency against the Ethiopian government, seeking more autonomy for the underdeveloped, Muslim ethnic Somali region. Prime Minister Menes Zenawi announced a crackdown on the ONLF after the rebels killed 74 people in an attack on a Chinese-run oil exploration field in April 2007, the single worst attack in a year of rising violence. Human Rights Watch and other aid groups have accused the Ethiopian government and military of widespread abuses against ethnic Somali civilians, including the burning of homes, displacement of thousands, confiscation of livestock and arbitrary detention of civilians. In January, the Ethiopian government passed a law to regulate charities. Critics say it is a plan to stifle social activity and economic progress. Only Ethiopian charities or societies with no more than 10 percent of their spending coming from "foreign sources" would be able to work in those areas.
There are feelings among the opposition party that the government is cracking down on the opposition leading up to elections in 2010. 41 opposition and former military officers were arrested for their parts in a plot to assassinate government leaders and sabotage public installations.
Iraq
Iraq’s history is one of near-consistent conflict. Since the 1980s, Iraq has been involved in several international wars, counterinsurgency campaigns, and even genocide. Tensions between the US and Iraq over UN weapons inspections led to a US-coalition led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Saddam Hussein, the former autocratic leader of Iraq, was captured by coalition forces in December of 2003. In January 2005 Iraq held general assembly elections, in which Shiite Muslims won the majority of seats. A consistent and violent insurgency, however, has undermined the nascent Iraqi government, targeting civilians and the Iraqi police force in escalating attacks. Tensions between the Sunni and Shi’a have also escalated, leading to intense sectarian violence that many believe could sow the seeds for total civil war. But there are signs the bloodshed may have peaked with violence having dropped significantly since mid 2007. This has been attributed to a major U.S. military build-up, a more aggressive strategy towards al Qaeda and Shi'ite militias, and Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's order to his Mehdi Army militia to freeze their activities. Others say violence has declined because areas have been ethnically cleansed during two years of sectarian bloodshed. In December 2007, Britain handed security for Basra to Iraqi forces, effectively ending nearly five years of British control of southern Iraq. The U.S. military had handed over security responsibility for nine out of Iraq's 18 provinces by July 2008, and has planned for more to follow. Former Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz was sentenced to jail for 15 years. Chemical Ali was sentenced to death a third time. Iraqi media is embracing the web, but usage is still low. Obama has put in place a plan to end U.S. combat operations in Iraq in 18 months while drawing complaints from some Democrats for saying he will leave up to 50,000 combat troops there. While violence in Iraq has dropped significantly since 2003, political parties are still fighting and Mosul is still a hotbed of terrorist activity. Reincorporating former Baath party members back into government is still a struggle as Maliki seems to be blocking those plans.
Iraq has taken responsibility for 90 of 138 military sites from U.S. troops in charge of security and the Iraqi government will, by the end of the month, take responsibility for the rest. Between March and May, violent acts are down by 76% from a year earlier.
Nigeria
The potential for peace, democratization, and stability in Nigeria remains severely handicapped by ethnic and religious killings, proliferation of armed militias, politicization of ethnicity and religion, and massive corruption. Much of the ethno-religious tensions and internal intricacies that plague the country have their roots in European imperialism and African geography. Nigeria’s civil war, from 1967-1970, left over a million dead. Following nearly three decades of military rule, power was transferred to a democratically elected government in 1999, but the monopolization of power and assets by the dominant elite class remains a great obstruction to fair and open political processes. The majority of the Nigerian population has yet to receive a fair share of the country's wealth, possess opportunities for economic advancement, and have fair political representation. Because of these state failures, widespread and deepening frustration has fueled increased militancy. Today, there is a very real potential for escalated violence (particularly in the Niger Delta region) with major security implications. In late November 2008, clashes between Muslim and Christian gangs triggered by a disputed local government election killed around 400 people in the central Nigerian city of Jos, the worst unrest in the country for years. Nigeria experienced few kidnappings in the first few months, mostly of oil workers. On the humanitarian front, an outbreak of Lassa fever and a stopped shipment of AIDS drugs in the Netherlands are a cause for concern, as well as deteriorating economic situation.
Nigerian militants attack Chevron and Shell refineries, cutting output by 33,000 bpd. Nigerian President Yar’Adua will next week proclaim an amnesty for Niger Delta militants who surrender their arms and embrace peace. The amnesty is part of the Technical Committee’s work to stabilize the Delta. Dozens of soldiers and militants have been killed in the last six weeks in stepped up fighting by the government against MEND.
Somalia
In 1991, clan factions overthrew President Mohammad Barre and the country has been without any real regime since. Somalia has thus been in a state of near anarchy for nearly two decades, with rival clans turning on each other and causing severe violent conflict. In 2004, tentative agreements were reached regarding the formation of a transitional government, but lack of state institutions and funds made it impossible for the newly formed group of state leaders to establish themselves in the capital. Severe outbreaks of violence took place in 2007, and the present situation is very grim with continued violence and escalating turmoil. Years of anarchy combined with frequent drought and rampant inflation have turned Somalia into the world's worst humanitarian crisis, according to the U.N. Aid workers say Somalia has more than 1 million internally displaced people and their numbers are swelled by an exodus of thousands of civilians each month from the capital, Mogadishu, under attack from Islamists fighting to take control of it. The African Union has deployed troops to replace the Ethiopian troops whose presence has inflamed the conflict. But, unable to stem the insurgency, the AU troops complain they're under-funded and under-staffed - and the Ethiopian soldiers remain. In May, Ethiopia said it would keep troops inside Somalia until the Islamists are defeated. In June 2008, the government signed a three-month ceasefire with the opposition group Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia, promising the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia within 120 days. The Islamists, however, rejected the deal outright, vowing to continue fighting until all foreign troops had left Ethiopian soil. Attacks on humanitarian workers escalated throughout the year, and in June 2008 the World Food Program warned that the surge in attacks on aid workers could threaten the entire aid response, resulting in a humanitarian disaster that would rival the 1992-1993 famine. After suicide attacks in Somaliland and Puntland killed at least 30 in October, a ceasefire agreement between the Somali government and the Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia was resigned in Djibouti, dependent on Ethiopian troop withdrawal by early 2009. However, current president Abdullahi Yusuf recently admitted that the Islamists control most of the country, and raised the prospect that the current government could completely collapse. Reports of Somali Americans missing from the US are showing up as soldiers fighting with a Somali Al Queda-linked group, al Shabaab, which controls a large part of the country. Al Shabaab has been active in roadside bombings and fighting the government. The Somali President, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed’s cabinet voted to impose Sharia law, but the rebels say the move is hypocritical and will continue their activities. A severe drought has put more Somalis on the verge of starvation. Livestock has already started to die.
Somalia is on the deteriorated situation list and has a conflict risk alert on the Crisis Watch June 2009 list. There is escalating violence in southern Somalia, with a high probability of full blown civil war if concerted efforts aren’t made to mediate the fighting. This will result in more refugees and extremism. More than 100,000 citizens have been displaced in the last month because of the fighting between the transitional government and Islamic hard liners. Al-Queda fighters have been leaving Pakistan and coming to Somalia to join the Jihad.
Sri Lanka
For the last 20 years Sri Lanka has suffered from continuous conflict between the government and a separatist rebel group, the Liberation Tigers of Tabil Eelam (often known as the Tamil Tigers). The Tamil Tigers are a secular rebel group that claim to represent the country’s Tamil ethnic minority. To date, the conflict is estimated to have killed up to 65,000 people, with over one million displaced. Millions of landmines have been laid, threatening lives and adding to the destruction of agricultural land. Cautiously optimistic hopes for peace in 2002 were dashed when negotiations backslid – since 2004, armed hostilities have resumed between the Tamil Tigers and the government, and between factions of the Tamil Tigers in itself. Since then, hundreds of thousands have been displaced; in early 2008, the Sri Lankan government declared the truce officially dead. In November 2008, Sri Lanka's military seized the entire western coast of Sri Lanka after months of combat, giving the government control of a land route all the way to a ferry that can easily bring supplies to Jaffna. The situation in Sri Lanka has deteriorated in recent weeks. The Government and Tamil Tigers were asked to stop fighting and let 180,000 civilians leave the affected area of fighting on the northeast coast. Both sides may have committed war crimes. The military has encircled the rebels in the northeastern corner of the state.
With the defeat of the Tamil Tigers in Mid May, the fighting has come to and end. 7000 civilians, including 1000 children and 10,000 wounded in the last months of the fighting. The deaths of the last 2 weeks of the war left many more dead and wounded. There is no exact number from the Red Cross. 300,000 civilians had fled the war zone and are refugees. These refugees are living in harsh government internment camps. Conditions there are horrible. There are no lists of names and the government has strict restrictions on leaving the camp to prevent the spread of information on the camps conditions and on the experiences of the refugees in the camps
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